Ron Paul’s Path to the Nomination
Ron Paul's growing grassroots support and fundraising success have astounded the mainstream media, but many still give him little chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination. How can a candidate trailing in the polls in early November overtake the field and win? Here's how:
November 5th: A grassroots-organized fundraising drive raises nearly two million dollars in one day, gaining widespread media coverage and leading many more voters to begin to consider Ron Paul as a serious option. They investigate and like what they see.
Mid to late November: Ron Paul continues to spend his stockpiled cash on radio, television, and direct mail efforts in early primary states like New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina. His poll numbers in those states continue their steady climb, closing in on 10%.
December: The campaign cash continues to roll in, spiked by another grassroots funding effort on the 15th (Bill of Rights Day) and the 16th (the 234th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party.) Ron Paul nears 10% in the national polls for the first time, breaking into the double digits in New Hampshire and Nevada.
January 3rd: Ron Paul's unmatched grassroots campaign organization amazes the media with a strong third place showing in the Iowa caucuses, ending all doubts about whether his unprecedented Internet support will translate into votes. Pundits attribute the result to low turnout for the other candidates in the caucuses, and predict that it won't carry over into other states with traditional primaries.
January 5th: Ron Paul finishes second in county-level delegate elections in Wyoming's early contest, but the story is mostly downplayed due to the looming (and better understood) primary in New Hampshire.
January 8th (date not finalized yet, my guess): Ron Paul wins the New Hampshire primary, shocking the world. Talking heads from Fox News to CNN point out that New Hampshire is much more libertarian than the rest of the United States, and argue that he is obviously not a threat at the national level, since he is still only polling at 15%. As the weaker contenders drop out, Giuliani and Romney are predicted to gain a larger percentage of the vote in later contests.
January 15th: Ron Paul wins again, in Michigan, as disgruntled Democrats cross over in droves, protesting the Democratic Party's severe delegate penalties for moving up the primary. Sean Hannity shakes his head, saying "here we go again," advising his viewers that the Michigan contest is meaningless, since most other states do not allow crossover voting.
January 19th: Ron Paul wins the low-turnout Nevada caucuses by a large margin, and posts a solid third-place finish in South Carolina. The national media ignore the Nevada results, calling it a two man race after South Carolina, with Ron Paul on the outside looking in (despite his early delegate lead), since he's at only 18% in the polls, and can't possibly go any higher.
January 29th: Rudy Giuliani wins the Florida primary as expected, and is anointed the clear Republican front-runner heading into Super Tuesday, as Ron Paul edges Mitt Romney for second place. The mainstream media predict that Ron Paul will take away just enough conservative votes from Romney to hand the nomination to Giuliani. Ron Paul hits 20% in national polls for the first time.
February 5th: Ron Paul hauls in 35% of the vote on Super Tuesday as his supporters turn out at much higher than expected rates, giving him victories in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia. In eight other states he finishes second or third, including a close second in delegate-rich California. When the smoke clears, Ron Paul holds a sizable lead in the delegate count, but the race is still not decided. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton locks up the nomination, nine months ahead of the general election.
February 9th and 19th: Ron Paul chalks up additional victories in Kansas, Wisconsin, and Washington, topping 50% of the vote for the first time in the Washington primary. TV talk begins to turn to how well Ron Paul might do against Hillary Clinton in November.
March 4th: Ron Paul secures the Republican nomination with a runaway victory in Texas, gaining 76% of the vote. The dollar begins to reverse its long decline against other world currencies with a major upward spike.
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November 5th: A grassroots-organized fundraising drive raises nearly two million dollars in one day, gaining widespread media coverage and leading many more voters to begin to consider Ron Paul as a serious option. They investigate and like what they see.
Mid to late November: Ron Paul continues to spend his stockpiled cash on radio, television, and direct mail efforts in early primary states like New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina. His poll numbers in those states continue their steady climb, closing in on 10%.
December: The campaign cash continues to roll in, spiked by another grassroots funding effort on the 15th (Bill of Rights Day) and the 16th (the 234th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party.) Ron Paul nears 10% in the national polls for the first time, breaking into the double digits in New Hampshire and Nevada.
January 3rd: Ron Paul's unmatched grassroots campaign organization amazes the media with a strong third place showing in the Iowa caucuses, ending all doubts about whether his unprecedented Internet support will translate into votes. Pundits attribute the result to low turnout for the other candidates in the caucuses, and predict that it won't carry over into other states with traditional primaries.
January 5th: Ron Paul finishes second in county-level delegate elections in Wyoming's early contest, but the story is mostly downplayed due to the looming (and better understood) primary in New Hampshire.
January 8th (date not finalized yet, my guess): Ron Paul wins the New Hampshire primary, shocking the world. Talking heads from Fox News to CNN point out that New Hampshire is much more libertarian than the rest of the United States, and argue that he is obviously not a threat at the national level, since he is still only polling at 15%. As the weaker contenders drop out, Giuliani and Romney are predicted to gain a larger percentage of the vote in later contests.
January 15th: Ron Paul wins again, in Michigan, as disgruntled Democrats cross over in droves, protesting the Democratic Party's severe delegate penalties for moving up the primary. Sean Hannity shakes his head, saying "here we go again," advising his viewers that the Michigan contest is meaningless, since most other states do not allow crossover voting.
January 19th: Ron Paul wins the low-turnout Nevada caucuses by a large margin, and posts a solid third-place finish in South Carolina. The national media ignore the Nevada results, calling it a two man race after South Carolina, with Ron Paul on the outside looking in (despite his early delegate lead), since he's at only 18% in the polls, and can't possibly go any higher.
January 29th: Rudy Giuliani wins the Florida primary as expected, and is anointed the clear Republican front-runner heading into Super Tuesday, as Ron Paul edges Mitt Romney for second place. The mainstream media predict that Ron Paul will take away just enough conservative votes from Romney to hand the nomination to Giuliani. Ron Paul hits 20% in national polls for the first time.
February 5th: Ron Paul hauls in 35% of the vote on Super Tuesday as his supporters turn out at much higher than expected rates, giving him victories in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia. In eight other states he finishes second or third, including a close second in delegate-rich California. When the smoke clears, Ron Paul holds a sizable lead in the delegate count, but the race is still not decided. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton locks up the nomination, nine months ahead of the general election.
February 9th and 19th: Ron Paul chalks up additional victories in Kansas, Wisconsin, and Washington, topping 50% of the vote for the first time in the Washington primary. TV talk begins to turn to how well Ron Paul might do against Hillary Clinton in November.
March 4th: Ron Paul secures the Republican nomination with a runaway victory in Texas, gaining 76% of the vote. The dollar begins to reverse its long decline against other world currencies with a major upward spike.
