Ron Paul Catching Up in the Polls
Ron Paul has been slowly moving up in the polls this month, helped by publicity from the November 5th money bomb. Here's a look at the latest numbers nationally and in some early primary states, from poll summaries posted at Pollster.com and PollingReport.com.
National Polls
Fox (11/13-14): 3%, 6th place
Gallup (11/11-14): 5%, 6th place
ARG (11/9-12): 4%, 6th place
Cook (11/8-11): 6%, 6th place
Iowa Polls (Caucus 1/3/08)
Research 2000 (11/12-14): 5%, 6th place
ARG (11/10-14): 3%, 6th place
Strategic Vision (11/9-12): 5%, 6th place
New Hampshire Polls (Primary to be announced)
CBS (11/2-12): 8%, 4th place
Globe (11/2-7): 7%, 4th place
Marist (11/2-6): 7%, 4th place
Michigan Polls (Primary 1/15/08)
No November polls yet...
Strategic Vision (10/5-7): 4%, 6th place
Insider Advantage (10/2-3): 5%, 6th place
Nevada Polls (Caucus 1/19/08)
Zogby (11/9-10): 7%, 5th place
South Carolina Polls (Primary 1/19/08)
No November polls yet with Ron Paul included...
ARG (10/26-29): 4%, 6th place
Florida Polls (Primary 1/29/08)
Strategic Vision (11/9-11): 4%, 6th place
While Ron Paul still trails the other top tier candidates everywhere except New Hampshire and Nevada, it is encouraging to see his poll numbers reaching or exceeding 5% in several polls for the first time. Most of the polls are now including his name, and as he gets closer to 10%, more voters will start to consider him a serious contender. This will likely create a snowball effect when he clears the "viability hurdle" in voters' minds -- the point where he is seen as a serious contender.
If all of his supporters register and vote, the low turnout expected for the other candidates means he could win without ever leading in the polls, but the higher Ron Paul rises in the polls, the easier it will be.
Ron Paul remains the candidate with the highest upside in the race, since his name recognition is still relatively low, he is the only Republican promising to end the war in Iraq, he is solidly conservative across the board, and his reputation for integrity and consistency is unmatched. Another successful money bomb on December 16th, along with our continued efforts to inform our fellow Americans about his candidacy, should take care of the name recognition issue.
The great majority of likely primary voters have not yet made up their minds, so let's make sure they have all the information necessary to make the best choice.
Read more at Paul 4 Prez
National Polls
Fox (11/13-14): 3%, 6th place
Gallup (11/11-14): 5%, 6th place
ARG (11/9-12): 4%, 6th place
Cook (11/8-11): 6%, 6th place
Iowa Polls (Caucus 1/3/08)
Research 2000 (11/12-14): 5%, 6th place
ARG (11/10-14): 3%, 6th place
Strategic Vision (11/9-12): 5%, 6th place
New Hampshire Polls (Primary to be announced)
CBS (11/2-12): 8%, 4th place
Globe (11/2-7): 7%, 4th place
Marist (11/2-6): 7%, 4th place
Michigan Polls (Primary 1/15/08)
No November polls yet...
Strategic Vision (10/5-7): 4%, 6th place
Insider Advantage (10/2-3): 5%, 6th place
Nevada Polls (Caucus 1/19/08)
Zogby (11/9-10): 7%, 5th place
South Carolina Polls (Primary 1/19/08)
No November polls yet with Ron Paul included...
ARG (10/26-29): 4%, 6th place
Florida Polls (Primary 1/29/08)
Strategic Vision (11/9-11): 4%, 6th place
While Ron Paul still trails the other top tier candidates everywhere except New Hampshire and Nevada, it is encouraging to see his poll numbers reaching or exceeding 5% in several polls for the first time. Most of the polls are now including his name, and as he gets closer to 10%, more voters will start to consider him a serious contender. This will likely create a snowball effect when he clears the "viability hurdle" in voters' minds -- the point where he is seen as a serious contender.
If all of his supporters register and vote, the low turnout expected for the other candidates means he could win without ever leading in the polls, but the higher Ron Paul rises in the polls, the easier it will be.
Ron Paul remains the candidate with the highest upside in the race, since his name recognition is still relatively low, he is the only Republican promising to end the war in Iraq, he is solidly conservative across the board, and his reputation for integrity and consistency is unmatched. Another successful money bomb on December 16th, along with our continued efforts to inform our fellow Americans about his candidacy, should take care of the name recognition issue.
The great majority of likely primary voters have not yet made up their minds, so let's make sure they have all the information necessary to make the best choice.
