Ron Paul Places Fifth in New Hampshire
With 94% of the precincts reporting, it appears that Ron Paul will finish in fifth place in New Hampshire with 8% of the vote. Once again Ron Paul beat a supposed top tier candidate by a wide margin, this time Fred Thompson who earned a woeful 1% and left town for South Carolina before the votes were even counted. Once again Ron Paul narrowly missed out on a top four finish, this time to Rudy Giuliani who came in at 9%, another bad sign for the one-time front-runner and former mayor of a certain large city just 250 miles south of New Hampshire.
Ron Paul supporters were hoping for another double-digit percentage and a momentum-boosting third place finish, but the Republican results did leave the race wide open, with very few national delegates yet determined. Iowa victor Mike Huckabee managed only 11% of the vote, and Mitt Romney once again had to settle for second place with 32%. John McCain won with 37% and the help of a lot of independent voters, but it’s hard to see how his pro-amnesty record could go over well in South Carolina or Nevada.
The longer the race stays scrambled at the top, the better Ron Paul’s chances of staying in it for the duration of the primary season. Ron Paul continues to trail badly in unbiased media coverage, but his strong cash position and even stronger volunteer base will keep his candidacy alive, as long as supporters in later states continue to battle on.
Up next is Michigan on January 15th, which should be another McCain-Romney battleground, McCain having won the state in the 2000 primaries and Romney’s father George having been the governor there in the early 1970s. But Michigan is also an open primary, allowing Democrats and independents to vote for a Republican candidate if they choose to, with a special twist this year. Because Michigan jumped ahead in the primary schedule, Democrats penalized the state ALL of its national convention delegates, making the Democratic vote meaningless.
Leading Democratic contenders Barack Obama and John Edwards actually withdrew from the Michigan ballot after that, expecting Hillary Clinton to follow suit, but she did not. Anti-war Democratic and independent voters there can either cast a meaningless vote for the least anti-war Democrat, or cast a vote that counts in the Republican primary for Ron Paul, the most consistent anti-war candidate in either party. A stronger than expected finish could set Ron Paul up for a big day in Nevada and South Carolina on the following Saturday.
A fifth place finish in New Hampshire is disappointing, but it’s not the end of the campaign, thanks to the millions of dollars already donated by Ron Paul’s tens of thousands of dedicated supporters. That dedication will certainly be tested in the next few weeks, but if disappointment is channeled into action, Ron Paul could still be a viable contender heading into the big February 5th sweepstakes.
If you live in Michigan, Nevada, or South Carolina, your turn to shine is coming up soon, and the Revolution is counting on you to turn things in the right direction. If you live anywhere else, there’s another big money bomb right in the middle of those contests, to celebrate Benjamin Franklin’s birthday on January 17th.
