Why Ron Paul is the Most Viable Republican Candidate
The mainstream media has been quick to write off Ron Paul’s chances after two fifth-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire — too quick. The first three states have gone to three different candidates, there’s no clear national front runner, and the top contenders are all seriously flawed. Ron Paul is in perfect position to make a comeback in time for February 5th.
Political experts and media pundits are accustomed to writing off “long shot” contenders, which they’ve always considered Ron Paul to be, if they don’t do well in Iowa or New Hampshire. This is usually a reasonable conclusion, since long shot candidates normally are poorly funded and require an early victory to gain any sort of momentum.
But Ron Paul is a different sort of candidate all together — he is very well funded, with more national grassroots support than anyone else in the race. Unlike other top tier candidates, he has very few maxed out big-money donors, and hundreds of thousands of smaller donors who can refuel his campaign with new money bombs as needed. Since his support is ideologically driven, the dollars won’t dry up after a few disappointing primaries — he raised $19 million in the fourth quarter, but was never the odds-on favorite to win.
John McCain was well funded early last year, but squandered his lead and has had to fight back into contention. Rudy Giuliani took over when McCain fumbled, but Giuliani is now close to broke, with top staffers forgoing their pay in a desperate gamble in Florida. Mitt Romney has loaned himself millions, but is now forced to go all in in Michigan, his early state strategy a shambles. None of three early money leaders has ever had much of a grassroots network.
Mike Huckabee has always struggled to raise money, and is only now starting to gain serious grassroots support. Fred Thompson entered the race to much fanfare, but his lackadaisical campaign style has kept him from gaining on what should have been an easy field to catch.
The new national leader, John McCain, was on the wrong side of last summer’s amnesty debate, actually sponsoring a “comprehensive immigration reform” bill with Ted Kennedy. Conservative voters in the Southern states are unlikely to forget that fact. Mike Huckabee remains a long shot for the same reasons he has struggled to raise money — a soft record on illegal immigration, a record of increasing spending in Arkansas, and a fondness for big government. Rudy Giuliani is pro-choice in a pro-life party, and was no friend of the Second Amendment in New York. Mitt Romney is a Massachusetts flip-flopper in the mold of John Kerry.
Skeptics will point out that Ron Paul, even with the most impressive small-government, pro-Constitution voting record in the past two centuries, is also out of step with the Republican base, on the Iraq war issue. But there is one key strategic difference to this difference — Ron Paul may not be with the majority of Republicans on the issue, but he is with the overwhelming majority of the American people. If Republicans want to win in November, running an anti-war candidate can only improve their chances.
The upcoming primaries are well suited to a Ron Paul surge. Michigan is open to Democrats and independents, and the Democratic vote doesn’t even count, thanks to delegate penalties for moving the primary up. Nevada is a low-turnout caucus, in perhaps the most libertarian state in the nation. South Carolina and Florida may not be his strongest states, but the field is very closely divided there, and should keep the race thoroughly confused. The last contest before February 5th is another low-turnout caucus, in a state with a recent history of voting for independent candidates — Maine.
With Giuliani betting the ranch on Florida, Romney doubling down in Michigan, Thompson making his last stand in South Carolina, and with Huckabee and McCain having glaring geographical weaknesses, only Ron Paul is in position to compete nationally, with the funds to advertise in the big states, and the volunteers to go door-to-door where the other candidates have no presence. He has been opening a slew of new offices nationwide, and hitting the airwaves in the Super Tuesday states.
The mainstream media’s own bias keeps them from seeing what should be obvious to an objective observer — Ron Paul is in the best financial shape of any of the Republicans, and has the strongest grassroots network. That network may have experienced some growing pains in Iowa and New Hampshire, but success stories and lessons learned can be quickly communicated across the Internet, to supporters in new states.
And a second look at Iowa and New Hampshire reveals that Ron Paul did much better than any of the media’s “experts” would have predicted just a few months ago, and better than two of the candidates they once considered to be the strongest players, as these combined vote totals from Iowa and New Hampshire show:
Romney - 105,292 Total Votes - 29.91%
McCain - 104,025 Total Votes - 29.55%
Huckabee - 67,609 Total Votes - 19.20%
Paul - 30,120 Total Votes - 8.56%
Giuliani - 24,492 Total Votes - 6.96%
Thompson - 18,790 Total Votes - 5.34%
Hunter - 1,744 Total Votes - 0.50%
Giuliani and Thompson have been trounced by Paul, and no one is asking when they plan to drop out, or who they will endorse, of if they will run third party campaigns. In a way, that is a compliment to Ron Paul — Giuliani and Thompson don’t have the base of support to pull off a third-party run, even if they wanted to.
The Revolution continues…..
