Ron Paul 4th in Michigan; Beats Rudy Again

Even though he spent the week in Nevada, Ron Paul earned a fourth place finish in the Michigan primary, topping the 50,000 vote mark and beating both Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson by more than 20,000 votes. With 97% of the precincts reporting, Ron Paul earned 6% of the vote, to 4% for Thompson and 3% for Giuliani. The Republican race remains wide open, as new national front-runner John McCain’s 30% was well behind Mitt Romney’s 39%. Mike Huckabee was third with 16%.

Michigan has an open primary, and Ron Paul did better among independents and Democrats than among Republican voters. According to exit polls of voters in the Republican primary, he earned 13% of the independent vote, 7% of the Democratic crossover vote, and 5% of the Republican vote.

The Ron Paul Revolution continues to fare very well with younger voters. In the 18-24 age group, Ron Paul earned 22% of the vote, just five percentage points behind Mitt Romney, although this group made up only 6% of the Republican voters. In the 25-29 age bracket, Ron Paul earned 16% of the vote.

Some aspects of the exit poll were not so positive for the Ron Paul campaign, and may suggest strategic changes heading into the February 5th primaries. A full 19% of the voters in the Republican primary strongly oppose the war in Iraq, but only 20% of those respondents voted for Ron Paul, with 35% voting for McCain and 22% for Romney. Ron Paul has emphasized his anti-war stance in the debates, but radio, television, and direct mail ads have downplayed the issue, or entirely avoided it.

The biggest obstacle facing Ron Paul in the remaining primaries may be the viability question. Even though his finances are in better shape than most, or perhaps all, of the other Republicans, and he has far more volunteer troops on the ground nationwide, many voters still consider him a long shot after months of media conditioning to that effect. In the exit polls, 12% of Republican voters named Ron Paul as the candidate most likely to bring needed change, but only 48% of those respondents actually voted for him.

The easiest way to change that perception would be with a win or a surprisingly strong showing in one of the remaining contests before February 5th. Nevada, I’m talking about you….