Ron Paul Leads in Donations in Four Super Tuesday States
The year-end FEC fundraising data is a treasure trove of competitive information on all of the candidates, and the strongest and most objective means of comparing candidate popularity in each state. Looking at the six remaining major candidates yields some surprising results. Media-anointed national front-runner John McCain leads Republicans in donations in only five of the twenty-two Super Tuesday states, compared to twelve for Mitt Romney, one for Mike Huckabee, and four for Ron Paul.
Super Tuesday states where Romney leads in fundraising: Alabama, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, Tennessee, Utah, and West Virginia.
States where McCain leads: Arizona, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, and Oklahoma.
States where Ron Paul leads: Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, and Hawaii.
State where Huckabee leads: Arkansas.
Other states where Ron Paul may fare well are the states where he was the second leading Republican fundraiser (of the four remaining candidates): Arkansas, Georgia, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia. He was third in all of the other Super Tuesday states, since he raised so much more nationally than Huckabee.
If you're watching the race on the Democratic side, the year-end fundraising totals per state may be an even better predictor, since Obama and Clinton raised nearly the same amount nationwide, $101 million and $104 million, respectively. The race is very close, with Obama leading in twelve states and Clinton in ten, although the states holding contests differ slightly from the Republican side. (Idaho, Kansas, and New Mexico are in play for the Democrats, but West Virginia, Montana, and Hawaii are not.)
Super Tuesday states where Barack Obama leads in fundraising: Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Tennessee.
States where Hillary Clinton leads: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Utah.
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Super Tuesday states where Romney leads in fundraising: Alabama, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, Tennessee, Utah, and West Virginia.
States where McCain leads: Arizona, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, and Oklahoma.
States where Ron Paul leads: Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, and Hawaii.
State where Huckabee leads: Arkansas.
Other states where Ron Paul may fare well are the states where he was the second leading Republican fundraiser (of the four remaining candidates): Arkansas, Georgia, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia. He was third in all of the other Super Tuesday states, since he raised so much more nationally than Huckabee.
If you're watching the race on the Democratic side, the year-end fundraising totals per state may be an even better predictor, since Obama and Clinton raised nearly the same amount nationwide, $101 million and $104 million, respectively. The race is very close, with Obama leading in twelve states and Clinton in ten, although the states holding contests differ slightly from the Republican side. (Idaho, Kansas, and New Mexico are in play for the Democrats, but West Virginia, Montana, and Hawaii are not.)
Super Tuesday states where Barack Obama leads in fundraising: Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Tennessee.
States where Hillary Clinton leads: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Utah.
